It's not easy for any original sci-fi movie to break through in a marketplace crammed full of well-known IPs, and with the likes of Masters of the Universe, Toy Story 5, and Supergirl already in theaters or right around the corner, Disclosure Day faces tough competition at the box office.
We're also seeing YouTubers-turned-filmmakers like Curry Barker and Kane Parsons make an impact with horror hits like Obsession and Backrooms, with both movies holding up well from weekend to weekend. Now, Deadline reports that Steven Spielberg's UFO movie is eyeing a $35 million start in the U.S.
With a surprisingly modest $115 million production budget, Disclosure Day's expected $65 million global bow bodes well, particularly as the movie is "Certified Fresh" on Rotten Tomatoes with 82%.
While $35 million is one of Spielberg's lowest North American opening weekends, his movies typically have legs, and there's a lot of buzz surrounding the movie. However, with only a week to make an impact before Toy Story 5 comes along, Disclosure Day will likely be a modest success at most.
According to Variety, with $80 million in marketing costs, the sci-fi movie needs to gross at least $300 million globally to break even. As one studio executive posits, "Spielberg’s name carries weight, but it’s not the same [as it was]. Moviegoers who grew up with Spielberg are older, and those are the ones who are more challenged to go to cinemas."
Elsewhere this weekend, Scary Movie is facing a 60% decline with $21 million in the U.S. following its $54.3 million franchise-high opening last week. As for Masters of the Universe, it's already slipping down the charts and is currently neck and neck with Backrooms as both are eyeing a $12 million haul (the latter is in its third weekend, whereas He-Man is only in his second).
"It’s my first film that will be considered science fiction that I do not consider to be science fiction," Spielberg said in a recent interview. "It’s much more reflective of the world as it is evolving and discoveries that are being made as we speak."
"I’ve been a believer since I made ‘Close Encounters’ 50 years ago. But I would always say: Until I’ve seen a UAP or a UFO with my own eyes, I’m not going to categorically state that life from out there has come here," he continued. "But I’ve changed that. I’m now willing to change my mind because of the circumstantial evidence which is overwhelming."
If you found out we weren’t alone, if someone showed you, proved it to you, would that frighten you? This weekend, the truth belongs to seven billion people in Disclosure Day, the highly anticipated new UFO movie from the legendary Steven Spielberg.
The cast of Disclosure Day includes SAG winner and Oscar nominee Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Emmy and Golden Globe winner Josh O’Connor (Challengers), Oscar winner Colin Firth (Kingsman), Eve Hewson (Bad Sisters) and two-time Oscar nominee Colman Domingo (Your Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man).
Disclosure Day is set to be released in theaters on June 12.