Current box office projections for The Mandalorian and Grogu indicate the first Star Wars movie since 2019 grossed $34 million on Friday, with an estimated $80 million three-day opening and $90 million across the four-day Memorial Day weekend.
It could even soar to $100 million, putting it in the same ballpark as 2018's Solo: A Star Wars Story (which made $84.4 million/$103 million during its pre-COVID Memorial Day). Regardless of box office, this big-screen follow-up to The Mandalorian and Grogu will make money, even if it isn't breaking records in multiplexes.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, the movie cost $160 million to produce and at least $100 million to market. Disney will need a final gross of $500 million to $600 million to break even/turn a profit, but it sounds like box office totals aren't that important for this one.
Disney+'s The Mandalorian has generated over $1 billion in merchandise sales for the company, so in the ultimate example of corporate synergy, think of The Mandalorian and Grogu as a promotional tool for toys, the Disney Parks, and even Disney+.
A Disney executive tells the trade, "The impact it will have on Disney+ is critically important to us. Not only could it ultimately end up on the service and get tens of millions of hours of watch views, it will also have an impact on Mandalorian seasons one through three. And what we’re also finding is that it is already helping not only The Mandalorian, but the entire Star Wars catalogue."
Kids weren't exactly rushing to stores to buy toys for Thunderbolts* last year, which is why its $382.4 million haul was considered such a let-down. Star Wars is a different beast, though, and Disney is banking more on toys than ticket sales.
The bigger test for the property will be next year's Star Wars: Starfighter. A Disney source explains, "We’re done shooting Starfighter and it’s being cut together now. We definitely have a plan as to what we’re going to do next with the franchise after that. We’re knee-deep into it. This has been an ongoing plan for a while."
Back to The Mandalorian and Grogu, and something that will help its box office prospects is positive word of mouth. With 89% on Rotten Tomatoes' Popcornmeter and an A- CinemaScore, audiences are clearly enjoying the movie. CinemaScore is a market research firm that surveys audience reactions to newly released movies.
After attending opening night screenings, moviegoers rate films on an A+ to F scale, providing insights into audience satisfaction. Widely used in the film industry, CinemaScore helps gauge the initial reception of movies and influences box office predictions based on audience feedback.
With an A-, The Mandalorian and Grogu is on par with The Phantom Menace, Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith, and Solo. It sits above The Rise of Skywalker (B+) and below A New Hope, The Empire Strikes Back, and Return of the Jedi (A+) and The Force Awakens, Rogue One, and The Last Jedi (A).
"The Mandalorian and Grogu is a fun, pulpy reminder that Star Wars doesn’t need to grow up; it just needs to be entertaining," we said in our review. "Jon Favreau's action-packed love letter delivers exactly the crowd-pleasing adventure fans have been craving."
In The Mandalorian and Grogu, the evil Empire has fallen, and Imperial warlords remain scattered throughout the galaxy. As the fledgling New Republic works to protect everything the Rebellion fought for, they have enlisted the help of legendary Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and his young apprentice Grogu.
Directed by Jon Favreau, the movie also stars Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White. It's produced by Jon Favreau, Kathleen Kennedy, Dave Filoni, and Ian Bryce, with music composed by Ludwig Göransson.
The Mandalorian and Grogu arrives in theaters on May 22.