The Mandalorian and Grogu starts rolling out into theaters later today, but can the first Star Wars movie since 2019's The Rise of Skywalker restore the long-running sci-fi franchise to its former glory?
On Rotten Tomatoes, the first big-screen adaptation of a Disney+ series sits at 60%, meaning it's a mere percentage point away from slipping into "Rotten" territory. That's based on 135 reviews, with at least another couple of hundred yet to be counted based on past experience.
Following initial projections that The Mandalorian and Grogu would open with $160 million at the worldwide box office, The Hollywood Reporter has some revised figures that bode well for The Mandalorian follow-up.
Tracking services show The Mandalorian and Grogu opening to roughly $82 million in North America, an increase of $2 million from numbers shared earlier this week. However, some exhibitors expect it to soar to $95 million to $100 million over the long Memorial Day weekend.
While its potential global bow still sits at $160 million, according to Disney insiders, the report explains, "Others who pay close attention to social metrics are more bullish. A major advantage: It is arguably the most family-friendly title of any Star Wars film."
One "top financier" who spoke to the trade believes The Mandalorian and Grogu could open with $105 million in the U.S. and $85 million overseas for a $190 million global bow.
"Word-of-mouth across social media is the key; critics have become largely irrelevant to performance," they explain. "The film’s fate will also hinge on whether it draws in the family audience. We expect that demographic to turn out. If they do not, the grosses will be lower than our predictions."
"Historically, Memorial Day has been driven by casual audiences deciding to go to the movies. Star Wars films have also relied on walk-up business," the insider continued, adding that Disney may not be too bothered by box office figures. Why? Grogu is a huge merchandise seller, and The Mandalorian now has a presence in its theme parks, so think of The Mandalorian and Grogu as an advertisement for those.
The Mandalorian and Grogu has started rolling out overseas, and it's off to a slow start in Italy, at least. The movie grossed $417,000 on Wednesday, which is on the lower side for a Disney IP in the country post-COVID. Still, as with everywhere else, it's the weekend that will be key.
In The Mandalorian and Grogu, the evil Empire has fallen, and Imperial warlords remain scattered throughout the galaxy. As the fledgling New Republic works to protect everything the Rebellion fought for, they have enlisted the help of legendary Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and his young apprentice Grogu.
Directed by Jon Favreau, the movie also stars Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White. It's produced by Jon Favreau, Kathleen Kennedy, Dave Filoni, and Ian Bryce, with music composed by Ludwig Göransson.
The Mandalorian and Grogu arrives in theaters on May 22.