Earlier this year, James Cameron acknowledged that if Avatar: Fire and Ash didn't make enough money to convince Disney to bankroll his two additional sequels, he was ready to walk away from the franchise and write a book that would resolve some loose ends. Now with the third film in the franchise nearing its box office run with $1.4 billion, it looks like Fire and Ash's haul will fall well short of 2009’s Avatar and 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water, both of which eclipsed $2 billion globally.
Of course, surpassing $1 billion at the box office is no easy feat, especially these days, and while Avatar: Fire and Ash may still not be profitable for the studio, James Cameron believes a fourth film is likely.
Speaking to ScreenRant during a press conference at the Saturn Awards, Cameron addressed the prospect of Avatar 4.
Absolutely. To perfectly be clear, we haven't even made a decision to move forward. But should I do that - which I will say is likely, but not 100% - we will definitely learn from the lessons of all three films.
From Fire and Ash, Varang may need to be written up a little bit moving forward. She kind of just took her place amongst all the others, because there are a lot of characters and plates spinning in the story. So, yeah, we might want to make her a little more [prominent].
But that's good. That's a good problem to have when people are really responding to an element. In The Way of Water, people really responded resoundingly to Payakan. He was literally the highest-rated character in the film. I didn't tell the actors that. But it's like, "I guess we better put Payakan into Fire and Ash." You learn as you go forward. It's evolving.
It’s worth noting that part of Avatar 4 has already been filmed. The scenes were shot during production of Avatar: The Way of Water and Avatar: Fire and Ash to account for the aging of the younger cast. Even so, Cameron says it’s still “not 100%” guaranteed that the film will ultimately move forward.
A $1.4 billion box office total may sound enormous, but as Variety reported earlier this month, that figure could still be “barely profitable” once theater splits, production budgets, and marketing costs are factored in.
As it currently stands, Avatar 4 is currently planned for release on December 21, 2029. A fifth film has also been announcd and is scheduled for December 2031.